Tropopause polar vortices and multi-scale Artic predictability
Abstract
Funds are provided to conduct fundamental research to understand and quantify the role in which Tropopause Polar Vortices (TPVs) are an extended-range prediction barrier over the Arctic. To achieve this goal, the PI will investigate the following hypotheses: (1) A limit to warm season Arctic sea ice predictability arises from short time-scale (days to weeks) atmospheric forcings associated with synoptic-scale cyclones, (2) synoptic-scale Arctic surface cyclone predictability is limited by errors originating in upstream TPVs, and (3) limited observations of clouds and water vapor, combined with the relatively small horizontal scale of TPVs, limit the predictability of TPVs and sea ice. These hypotheses will be tested using the fully-coupled Earth system modeling framework, created by the investigators from prior ONR support, called the Model for Prediction Across Scales-Community Earth System Model (MPAS-CESM).
Document Details
- Document Type
- DoD Grant Award
- Publication Date
- Jul 10, 2018
- Source ID
- N000141812223
Entities
People
- Steven Cavallo
Organizations
- Office of Naval Research
- United States Navy
- University of Oklahoma