Power Projection, Deterrence Strategies, and Escalation Dynamics in Era of Resurgent Near Peers, Rogue States, and Cross Border
Abstract
The purpose of this research is to determine what leads to successful deterrence, versus failure and escalation across the spectrum of challenges: near crises, crises, and war. In particular, our project objectives are as follows: to break down challenges into their distinct components (adversary demands, power projection, and deterrent threats) and stages (near crisis, crisis, and war); to develop a dataset of challenges, near crises, crises and wars for the 1995-2015 period, which codes not only the outcomes, but the moves and countermoves of the actors in the near crisis, crisis and war setting, and how these moves impact each other; to develop a game tree of possible moves for both parties at each stage of a challenge; to explain why some challenges escalate from challenges ? near crises ? crises ? war, whereas others resolve through deterrence and de-escalation at either the near crises or crises stage; to explore how escalation dynamics related to one challenge affect the escalation dynamics of future challenges and challenges vis-à-vis other actors. to explore the different dynamics of challenges by different types of actors (near peers, rogue states, and VNSAs); and to provide policy relevant advice to the DOD about situation-specific deterrence strategies to pursue when faced with particular types of challenges.
Document Details
- Document Type
- DoD Grant Award
- Publication Date
- Jul 26, 2018
- Source ID
- N000141812407
Entities
People
- Steven Lobell
Organizations
- Office of Naval Research
- United States Navy
- University of Utah