Numerical Superintensity of Tropical Cyclones: A Unique Challenge in Atmospheric Modeling
Abstract
Funds are provided to perform simulations of tropical cyclones using very high resolution models operating near their inviscid limits. Preliminary work has shown that such simulations often produce storms whose actual wind speeds greatly exceed the maximum values predicted by existing theory. This ???superintensity??? appears to be owing to winds that exceed the maximum gradient wind for which the theory was designed. Preliminary research also suggests that some of the phenomenon of ???superintensity???, including at least part of the super-gradient effect, may be owing to truncation errors in finite difference models that are the inevitable result of strong eyewall frontogenesis when horizontal mixing is weak or absent. The PI proposes a program of research to explore this issue in depth. It is expected that the application of advanced numerical methods that have been developed to deal with fronts, shocks, and hydraulic jumps may substantially improve the operational numerical prediction of tropical cyclones, especially as their horizontal resolution continues to improve.
Document Details
- Document Type
- DoD Grant Award
- Publication Date
- Jul 10, 2018
- Source ID
- N000141812458
Entities
People
- Kerry Emanual
Organizations
- Massachusetts Institute of Technology
- Office of Naval Research
- United States Navy