Quantifying the Practical Predictability of Tropical Cyclone Intensity Forecasts
Abstract
In this proposal, we will address several fundamental issues in current TC intensity forecasts, which include 1) what environmental factors will be of most importance in controlling the growth of TC intensity errors during TC rapid intensification, 2) to what extent the practical predictability of TC intensity forecasts varies in different large-scale environments, and 3) the dependence of the MPI limit on different environmental factors beyond sea surface temperature and outflow temperature. Despite significant improvement in TC track forecasts over last several decades, real-time intensity forecast errors have shown very incremental improvement during last several decades, with a common saturation of intensity errors at the 4-5 day lead times irrespective of modeling systems, initialization or parameterization schemes, or ocean basins. Such strikingly persistent intensity error characteristics among different basins and modelling systems thus pose a critical question of how much further the absolute intensity errors can be reduced in future.
Document Details
- Document Type
- DoD Grant Award
- Publication Date
- Jul 26, 2018
- Source ID
- N000141812588
Entities
People
- Chanh Kieu
Organizations
- Indiana University
- Office of Naval Research
- United States Navy