Rising Power Alliances and the Threat of a Parallel Global Order: Understanding BRICS Mobilization
Abstract
Rising Power Alliances and the Threat of a Parallel Global Order:Understanding BRICS MobilizationProjections about the future of the global order have traditionally relied on two assumptions: that risingpowers gradually rise from within the existing governance infrastructure and that U.S.-led institutions arerobust. The BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa) countries challenge both of theseassumptions. They are engaging in revisionist coalition formation and creating new institutions that couldchallenge or replace U.S.-led institutions, potentially paving the way for a parallel, non-U.S.-led globalorder. The BRICS group has evolved from a Russia-led ad hoc group with vague goals ten years ago to asophisticated political entity that produced 231 joint commitments and delegated 15 mandates to intra-BRICS institutions between 2009 and 2014. In 2014, the BRICS launched two institutions, a global bankand a monetary fund, promoting a non-Western approach to development and de-dollarization.This new geopolitical dynamics is already affecting U.S. security interests. The BRICS group stood byRussia during the Ukraine crisis rather than supporting the U.S. agenda. Since the group now cooperateson 35 functional areas including defense and represents more than 40% of the world???s population andnearly a quarter of the world???s GDP, the US could be effectively forced to contend with new and broadlylegitimate global rules that it had no part in making. The US can find itself in new types of conflicts, facerestrictions on its use of the seas, air, space, and electromagnetic spectrum and have limited interventionopportunities.Research Questions: What is the nature and the reach of rising power alliances strategically seeking toreform the U.S.-led global order? When and how do rising powers ally with one another and how robustare their alliances, especially the BRICS?Methods and Anticipated Outcomes. We propose a three year study to address these questions 1)theoretically, by developing a rigorous multidisciplinary framework for defining and understandingalliances/coalitions in the contemporary global order. We systematically examine non-Western definitionsand theoretical approaches and theorize alliances/coalitions in the context of institutional complexity; 2)empirically, by employing a mixed-method approach to investigate the robustness of rising powers???policy convergence. We investigate various forms of rising powers??? cooperation (e.g., bilateral, trilateral)through process tracing, case studies and semi-structured interviews with policy experts in five BRICScountries; and, operationally, by exploring how the U.S. government can respond to global leadershipcontenders capable of antagonistic geopolitical balancing. We identify when, how, and under whatconditions, the US can strategically engage BRICS member countries and preserve its policy space in theglobal order.Impact on DoD Capabilities and National Defense. Three main impacts are: 1) Knowledge generation in acritical area for geostrategic situational awareness. The organizational structure of the U.S. foreign andsecurity apparatus focuses on regions, while BRICS coordinate their policies trans-regionally, across fourcombatant commands. This creates analytical and policy planning blind spots, which this project seeks toeliminate; 2) Meeting defense policy priorities with a renewed focus on state threats, Russia and China.This research specifically focuses on the changing nature of Russia-India-China relations, which haveimportant implications for alliance statecraft and U.S. relations with its closest allies; 3) Advancinginteragency policy planning to preserve U.S. policy space and explore new geostrategic opportunities.The project produces a series of policy briefs and devises a strategy to address revisionistalliances/coalitions.
Document Details
- Document Type
- DoD Grant Award
- Publication Date
- Sep 04, 2018
- Source ID
- N000141812744
Entities
People
- Kelly Sims Gallagher
Organizations
- Office of Naval Research
- Tufts University
- United States Navy