The Central Eurasian State Capacity Initiative: Assessing Threats to Geopolitical Stability and Conflict Along Russia s Periphery
Abstract
Research Problem: How do states establish and maintain the capacity to deliver essential services to citizens, and how do regional hegemons undermine service delivery to weaken neighbors and undermine their sovereignty? Our project, the Central Eurasian State Capacity Initiative (CESCI), investigates these questions in three post-Soviet states - Estonia, Georgia, and Ukraine - each with varying levels of initial state capacity and threat from the regional hegemon, Russia. We emphasize a heretofore under-studied aspect of state capacity: the ability of the state apparatus to provide essential services in healthcare, education, and democratic elections to its citizens. Each one of these services is crucial for citizens in their assessments of legitimacy, and each one is potentially vulnerable to both kinetic and information-based attacks. Our research identifies the baseline capability of each state and assesses how interference by external actors has undermined state capacity.Proposed Methods: Our project includes three phases. In Phase 1, we collect data and evaluate hypotheses related to the objective conditions of state capacity. Gathering data about healthcare, education, and elections, we establish how well each state provides services to its citizens. We investigate within-country variation by analyzing data from cluster sites that vary on important dimensions such as proximity to borders or conflict zones, urban/rural features, and ethnicity. We also adduce data on the effects of external interference on service provision. In Phase 2, we compile data related to the perceptions of service delivery from general population surveys and interviews with service providers. Using these data, we plan to evaluate where and why perceptions of service delivery differ from objective measures. In this phase, we develop a media database that identifies if and how the Russian-language media accessible in our target states challenges state legitimacy. In Phase 3, we synthesize our analysis to develop potential warning signs of external informational or military influence. Our analysis will rely on quantitative data in healthcare (e.g., mortality data), education (e.g., student performance), and elections (e.g., forensic assessments of results); survey data (e.g., citizen perceptions of service delivery and legitimacy, information about media consumption); and coded media reports. We will also use data from interviews of providers in healthcare, education, and elections to triangulate citizen perceptions and government data on the quality of services. Our analysis will include econometric assessments of the data and analytic narratives.Anticipated Outcomes of Research: We anticipate that CESCI will expand our understanding of state capacity in several ways. It will demonstrate: How citizens vary in their perceptions of state capacity across and within the three target countries; If and how a regional hegemon intentionally uses kinetic and/or propaganda efforts to undermine the legitimacy of its neighbors; If warning signs exist for incursions by this or other regional hegemons and how DoD can detect and react to these warning signs.Implications for National Defense: The failure of some states to build adequate capacity continues to render certain sub-national regions or social groups more prone to being suborned by Russia, either through surreptitious means, direct military action, or a combination of the two. As a consequence, significant national and international security implications now confront these states, their neighbors, and the US especially due to NATO treaty obligations in the Baltic states and other strategically vulnerable NATO countries. This shifting geostrategic landscape in this and other regions has and will continue to affect US defense missions and requirements from regional force structure and posture to basing decisions, tactical training and exercises, and intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance tasking. -
Document Details
- Document Type
- DoD Grant Award
- Publication Date
- Aug 15, 2019
- Source ID
- N000141912456
Entities
People
- Erik S. Herron
Organizations
- Office of Naval Research
- United States Navy
- West Virginia University