Arctic Observing System Simulation Experiments (OSSEs) within the ONR/Navy Global Ocean Forecasting System (GOFS) and Earth System Prediction Capability (ESPC) frameworks
Abstract
Arctic Observing System Simulation Experiments (OSSEs) within the ONR/Navy Global Ocean Forecasting System (GOFS) and Earth SystemThe anticipated outcome of the propsal is guidance in the design of optimal observing system configuration designed to minimizze forecast error and maximize predictive capability which is critical for Navy operatoins in a rapidly changing Arctic Environment. We plan to focus on improved forecasts of operational parameters such as sea ice thickness and concentration, sea ice motion, ice edge and marginal ice zone locations, ocean currents and stratification. We will optimize the assimilation of existing observational (NR) data and explore the impact of assimilating new data sources, such as altimetry near sea ice and sea ice thickness via various proxies (such as sea ice freeboard). The primary time frame studied will be 2017-2019, which is concurrent with YOPP, as well as the transition and validation of the Navy’s GOFS 3.5 and ESPC (both deterministic and ensemble systems). In the case of both new and existing data sources, we will conduct quantitative evaluations of alternate deployments and optimize observing strategies in order to demonstrate and quantify improvement relevant to operational Arctic forecasts.
Document Details
- Document Type
- DoD Grant Award
- Publication Date
- Sep 30, 2019
- Source ID
- N000141912674
Entities
People
- Eric Chassignet
Organizations
- Florida State University
- Office of Naval Research
- United States Navy