Multi-Scale Interactions and Predictability of Tropical Cyclone Intensification
Abstract
Funds are provided to conduct research to understand the complex nature of process and scale interactions that modulate TC intensity change. This effort will conduct a series of studies that use observations, idealized modeling, and ensemble forecasts of TCs to investigate the processes and predictability of TC intensification. The PI~s will address two scientific issues: the formation of eyewalls and the intensification process, and predictability of model scaled interactions. They will participate in the TCRI field campaign in 2020 and will provide ensemble forecast products and aircraft mission coordination. The second phase will use observational data from aircraft, satellites, and reanalyses to investigate a large number of tropical storms that subsequently underwent rapid intensification / steady intensification / no intensification. The third phase will use a range of realistic TC structures and environmental profiles deduced from the second phase to test the hypotheses in the idealized ensemble modeling framework. The fourth phase will investigate the role of microphysical processes on the mechanisms leading to different intensification rates. The fifth and final phase will be to extend the hypotheses together with advanced predictability diagnostics for use with the Navy~s ensemble forecasts of TCs.
Document Details
- Document Type
- DoD Grant Award
- Publication Date
- Feb 17, 2020
- Source ID
- N000142012075
Entities
People
- Sharanya J. Majumdar
Organizations
- Office of Naval Research
- United States Navy
- University of Miami