ADVANCES IN UNDERSTANDING, ANALYSES, AND PREDICTIONS OF TROPICAL CYCLONE RAPID INTENSIFICATION FROM NEW-GENERATION GEOSTATIONARY METEOROLOGICAL SATELLITE DATABASES

Abstract

Funds are provided to investigate the new-generation GOES-16 AMV datasets that have continuous full-disk coverage with higher spatial resolution and higher quality wind vectors. With the analysis and modeling tools the PI has developed, the new-generation geostationary satellites may provide the opportunity to continuously monitor the precursor conditions to TC rapid intensification, the horizontal and vertical structure of the vortex, and the interaction of the TC outflow with the environment. Since the timing of RI is a critical forecast issue, the first objective will be to document that his analyses based on GOES-16 AMVs will provide a definitive documentation of the timing of RI. The second objective will be to demonstrate the capability of the COAMPS-TC regional model initialized with his analyses to predict the timing and the magnitude of future RI. The proposed use of AMV-based diagnostic studies for a series of RI events will provide a better understanding of regional/global model predictions initiated from dual-constrained dynamic initialization and will improve our capability to forecast the dynamically changing multiscale RI events.

Document Details

Document Type
DoD Grant Award
Publication Date
Mar 11, 2020
Source ID
N000142012180

Entities

People

  • Russell Elsberry

Organizations

  • Office of Naval Research
  • Regents of the University of Colorado
  • United States Navy

Tags

Fields of Study

  • Environmental science

Readers

  • Atmospheric Science/Meteorology
  • Ocean-Atmosphere Mesoscale Modeling, Data Assimilation, and Flux Boundary Layers
  • Systems Analysis and Design

Technology Areas

  • Space