The predictability of mid-latitude cyclones
Abstract
Funds are provided to investigate the problem of mesoscale predictability in numerical weather forecasts, particularly the accurate prediction and localization of significant weather, including high winds, heavy rain, fog, and cloud cover, which are of great operational significance to the Navy. The PI will investigate the extent to which small-scale initial data is required to produce more skillful mesoscale forecasts. One goal of this research is to determine the extent to which high-resolution ensemble forecasts can be initialized from lower-resolution global ensembles. If successful, operational systems may be developed that allow the Navy to more easily create well-calibrated high-resolution ensemble weather forecasts for unfamiliar, data-sparse regions. The proposed research will examine upscale and downscale error growth and the predictability of mid-latitude cyclones. This approach will a provide a highly discriminating investigation of error growth characteristics by simulating very realistic, yet idealized, cases of moist cyclogenesis.
Document Details
- Document Type
- DoD Grant Award
- Publication Date
- May 08, 2020
- Source ID
- N000142012387
Entities
People
- Dale R. Durran
Organizations
- Office of Naval Research
- United States Navy
- University of Washington