On the Dynamics and Predictability of Tropical Cyclone Rapid Intensification
Abstract
Funds are provided to conduct applied research to improve real-time tropical cyclone (TC) intensity forecasts and the prediction of TC intensity change, especially rapid intensification (RI). The PI will investigate 3 questions, namely, i) what are the key environmental conditions that distinguish a RI versus a non-RI system?, ii) how far in advance can we reliably predict RI in different environmental conditions?, and iii) is there any upper limit on model capability to predict RI at different stages of TC development? This project will improve the capability of operational models in forecasting RI as well as advance our understanding of TC dynamics that is critical to Navy and Marine missions. He will continue ongoing collaboration with the COAMPS-TC model development team at the Naval Research Laboratory (NRL). His approach will use a combination of theoretical analyses and full-physics simulations to investigate the processes that modulate TC intensity change. The specific goals of this proposal are: 1) Determine the key environmental conditions that control the rate of RI and the timing of RI onset, along with the specific interactions of TCs and ambient environment that modulate TC intensity change in TC models, 2) Quantify the uncertainty and the predictability limit of RI from both theoretical and modelling perspectives, 3) Provide new understanding into the relative importance of different model physical schemes, stochastic forcing, and feedback mechanisms underlying the RI, using different models and full-physics simulations.
Document Details
- Document Type
- DoD Grant Award
- Publication Date
- May 08, 2020
- Source ID
- N000142012411
Entities
People
- Chanh Kieu
Organizations
- Indiana University
- Office of Naval Research
- United States Navy