Understanding China s Influence Along the Belt and Road
Abstract
Research Problem: Chinas economic rise heralds a new era in great power competition. Its so-called Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), which provides development finance primarily for infrastructure projects, brings deep questions in international relations to the fore: how do states use their economic power to achieve national interests in competition short of armed conflict; and can economic instruments be used as a means of coercion in international politics? Unfortunately, we lack a robust theory of the political-economic channels through which investments and financing yield influence and do not have rigorous measures of whether China is gaining such influence with BRI. A new empirically validated political economy model of economic competition for political influence is required.Proposed Methods: This project is built on three sub-projects: (A) Theory development with a focus on building robust political economy models that incorporate realistic models of project finance; (B) Data gathering and analysis focusing on high-resolution measurement of the responses to BRI investment by politicians and citizens; and (C) Elite interviews with politicians and government decision-makers in BRI-recipient nations. We will use the Philippines and Indonesia as our initial pilot locations for Project B, and extend to other BRI recipients as data and funding permit. We will conduct elite interviews in six countries: Philippines, Indonesia, Malaysia, Nepal, Thailand and Vietnam.Basic Research Contribution: Analyzing Chinas efforts to leverage its investment power for political gain will inform two basic research questions in international relations: (1) how can states use their economic power to achieve national interests in competition short of armed conflict; and (2) what is the potential for economic instruments to be used as a means of coercion in international politics? A better understanding of the political consequences of Chinese investments and overseas infrastructure projects should also inform thinking on a range of practical questions which preoccupy of U.S. policy-makers, such as how to best counter Chinese efforts to exert influence through commercial activity, and what the long-term geo-strategic implications of Chinese economic expansion will be.Anticipated Outcome of the Research: This project will provide the most compelling theoretical and empirical analysis of the political economy of the Belt and Road Initiative yet produced. We will place a particular emphasis on identifying the channels on influence and their effectiveness under different political conditions, including the use of corruption.Broader Implications for National Defense: Understanding if, when and where China is gaining political influence through its BRI-related financing is a pressing national security concern. U.S. and allied military facilities are situated along the Belt and Road, as is the case in the Philippines. And given the comparatively limited level of U.S. funding to non-military aid and investment, evidence regarding the most efficient means for countering Chinese influence is critical.
Document Details
- Document Type
- DoD Grant Award
- Publication Date
- Nov 09, 2020
- Source ID
- N000142112018
Entities
People
- Jacob Shapiro
Organizations
- Office of Naval Research
- Trustees of Princeton University
- United States Navy