Economic Viability, Resilience, and Sustainability of Logistics Systems in Post-Conflict Zones
Abstract
Our proposed research will develop and test a formal theory of infrastructure planning for logistics systems that support civilian economies in post-conflict situations. The theory will analyze the role of infrastructure reconstruction and expansion in economic development. It will allow for correction of supply chain inefficiencies, design of resilient responses to disruptions, and accommodation of socioeconomic considerations among competing stakeholders. Our project will involve the articulation of dynamic mathematical games describing the behavior of agents making decisions within each logistics system considered, thereby creating a family of dynamic spatial computable general equilibrium (D-SCGE) models. The model solutions will provide detailed numerical descriptions of economic activity within a zone of interest and also provide information needed to calculate net benefits of each logistics development and disruption scenario considered. The D-SCGE models will characterize differential mathematical games of three types: Nash, generalized Nash, and Stackelberg. The scenarios themselves will be carefully designed to replicate system states for logistics systems in actual postconflict circumstances. Solution algorithm software will also be enhanced to treat dynamic hierarchical mathematical games of the Stackelberg type, as well as dynamic mathematical program with equilibrium constraints (D-MPECs) arising in logistics systems design.We will also explore the complexity properties of the dynamic and interdependent logistics systems and economies by using classical stability theory of dynamical systems, evolutionary game theory, economic general equilibrium analysis, and mathematical ecology. This will provide the broadest and most interdisciplinary study to date of concepts useful for defining and assessing economic viability, resilience, and sustainability intrinsic to dynamic games. Our research will set a new standard for the size and complexity of empirically based dynamic games that may be analyzed computationally. Our models and solution methods will contribute to the literatures on dynamic optimization, dynamic game theory, dynamic economic analysis, and concepts of resilience of logistics systems. The numerical experiments will create a set of test problems that will establish benchmarks for future research on resilient infrastructure networks by an array of quantitative social scientists and computational game theorists.The DSGE/game theory modeling is part of a broader analytical framework consisting of several supporting modules: historical analysis, logistical system configurations, investment expansion and technological change analysis, multi-sector economic accounting, resilience analysis, and expert elicitation of stakeholders to identify objectives and constraints of transportation logistics system reconstruction and expansion. The combined model will be applied, tested, and validated through simulations of alternative transportation investment and economic development scenarios for Iraq.The proposed research project will provide DoD with a realistic characterization of how the logistics systems of a post-conflict society can be redeveloped and expanded to promote economic viability, resilience, and sustainability. Moreover, we expect that the modeling framework will enable DoD, as well as related U.S. Government agencies involved in stability operations and economic development more broadly, to explore alternative approaches to redevelopment of post-conflict economies in a broad range of circumstances around the globe.
Document Details
- Document Type
- DoD Grant Award
- Publication Date
- Feb 02, 2021
- Source ID
- N000142112163
Entities
People
- Adam Rose
Organizations
- Office of Naval Research
- United States Navy
- University of Southern California