ONR - Towards a Probabilistic Surge and Inundation Prediction System (2PSIPS): Technical Proposal FY2021 and 2022
Abstract
Funds are provided to 1) Investigate the relative importance of wave- and wind-driven processes on steep-slope and milder-slope coasts with verification on selected field sites 2) Incorporate the uncertainties in the total water level due to variations in the meteorological forcing on an alongshore-uniform coast for various coastal profile shapes.Over the last few decades, the nearshore and oceanographic community has made large progress in understanding the physical processes that govern the evolution of storm surge and the wave transformation in the coastal zone under extreme events such as hurricanes. At the same time, computational capabilities have improved so that it is now feasible to predict the hydrodynamics of surge and waves within an operational time frame for several days on domains of 100s of kilometers. This Technical Candidate addresses research needed for improved probabilistic forecasts of storm surge and inundation, which requires the inclusion of the effects from low-frequency waves, coral reef effects, as well as a computationally efficient model to satisfy operational time constraints for planning timelines. The work will include the development of an automated system that will provide probabilistic forecasts of surge and inundation water levels given the storm intensity and track forecasts from JTWC and the spatially varying wind fields predicted by COAMPS-TC. The probability of surge level maps produced by the system will allow for advanced planning of asset maneuver and safe harbor, particularly in the Western Pacific, where Naval infrastructure is vulnerable to rising water levels.
Document Details
- Document Type
- DoD Grant Award
- Publication Date
- Mar 15, 2021
- Source ID
- N000142112235
Entities
People
- Cornelis Nederhoff
Organizations
- Office of Naval Research
- United States Navy