Early Guidance on Tropical Cyclone Formation with Accompanying Track and Seven-Day Intensity Forecasts
Abstract
This proposal is to extend to all ocean basins the early tropical cyclone (TC) formation guidance product that we had developed under a NOAA Joint Hurricane Testbed (JHT) project. This guidance product is based on the NCEP Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS) and the ECMWF ensemble prediction system (ECEPS) and provides the Time-to-Formation (T2F) and the formation location along the Weighted Mean Vector Motion (WMVM) ensemble storm track. The western North Pacific (WPAC) has been the primary test region so that the Tsai and Elsberry (2019) Combined Weighted Analog Intensity Pacific (WAIP) prediction technique could be first operationally tested at the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC). Furthermore, the bifurcation version of WAIP (Tsai and Elsberry 2018) that is better able to predict peak intensities associated with RI will be first provided to JTWC and be part of the extension to all TC ocean basins. The Work Plan describes the status of the T2F guidance and WAIP-like intensity guidance and the proposed work tasks for each of the five TC basins.
Document Details
- Document Type
- DoD Grant Award
- Publication Date
- Jun 09, 2021
- Source ID
- N000142112371
Entities
People
- Russell Elsberry
Organizations
- Office of Naval Research
- Regents of the University of Colorado
- United States Navy