Multi-Level Models of Covert Online Information Campaigns
Abstract
We propose a basic program of research to examine influence operations in social media in the Indo-Pacific region using a multi-dime nsional, multi-level, multi-methodological approach. Our focus is on the proclivity of influence operations in pivotal events in the Indo-Pacific region. A cross-cultural approach toward events will be applied to elections, major protests, large-scale demonstratio ns, and other events which serve as indicators of instability and growing social unrest - in the Philippines, Indonesia, Australia, Taiwan and Hong Kong. We ask: Who is conducting these influence operations? What information maneuvers are being used to conduct the se influence operations? Who is being targeted? What is the impact of the different information maneuvers rs be countered? Our goal is to develop the foundational theoryand methods that will enable semi-autonomous intelligent assistants for reasoning about information that will to support DoD PAO and IO analysts. Our secondary goal is to test these theories and meth ods as we provide actionable insights into ongoing influence operations in the Indo-Pacific region. We have threesupporting objecti ves:1. Advance Understanding: First, to advance scientific understanding of how covert actors use information maneuvers to influenc e populations, spread disinformation, promote polarization, and generate mass hysteria but using multiple countries in the Indo-Paci fic region. As such we aim to develop new theoretical insights about the process of conducting information maneuvers, as well as new empirical insights about activities in the Indo-Pacific region. We propose to intentionallywork across diverse countries and diffe s of this understanding cross-culturally and cross-platform. We ask How do covert actors conduct information maneuvers on-line in the Indo-Pacific region at the present time? How significant a role does the Dark Web play in social media influence campaigns in t he Indo-Pacific region? What implications does this have for information maneuvers elsewhere in the world?2. Emotionally Intelligen t Assistants: Second, we set out to produce a set of validated and salable metrics and algorithms that provide emotionally-intellige nt assistance to human analysts seeking to identify and characterize information maneuvers by covert actors in diverse cultural and social media settings. We aim to develop technologies that consider not just patterns in data, but emotionally-based patterns in ch anges to the social networks and narratives being manipulated in the new information environment. We aim to develop technologies tha t are applicable in the wild with real data, and not just lab generated training sets. We ask What technology is needed to assess and measure covert influence campaigns using the Dark Web? Will emotional-intelligenceimprove our ability to identify, characteriz e, and assess the impact of information maneuvers by covert actors cross-culturally?3. Counter-maneuver Assessment: Third, to devel op a principled approach for assessing countermaneuvers. A counter-maneuver is a set of actions that if performed effectively will c ounter or mitigate the impact of an information maneuver; e.g., a counter-maneuver to an intimidation campaign may be to remove the intimidators. We aim to develop and use an agent-based simulation, DELOS, instantiated with real data, as a platform for assessing the potential impact of various counter-maneuvers. We ask What counter-maneuvers can be used to mitigate or counter the effects o f covert information maneuvers? Which aspects of these counter-maneuvers, if any, arelikely to be culturally and platform invariant ?
Document Details
- Document Type
- DoD Grant Award
- Publication Date
- Sep 03, 2021
- Source ID
- N000142112765
Entities
People
- Kathleen Carley
Organizations
- Carnegie Mellon University
- Office of Naval Research
- United States Navy