Complex Vulnerability Research within an Urban Setting on the Pacific Rim: Proto-Modeling Climate Im
Abstract
Climate and resource-driven increase in complexity leads human social systems to states of crisis in adapting, or failing to adapt,,to various social, political, cultural, and environmental pressures. That acquired complexity exerts pressures toward incorporation,into the rules of operation of the social system that may or may not be desirable. Crises in small-scale human systems, therefore, a,ffect critical dimensions within a larger society and its sustaining physical systems. The complex network of relationships between,many components lead to deep links that are very difficult to assess, but which are necessary to understand if we?re to respond to t,he forces brought by climate change (and other acute and chronic pressures) and define a path for a Fleet Commander to predict human,itarian requirements and allocate HA/DR response elements efficiently and effectively. We think that open data acquisition, coupled,with complex mathematics, algorithms, and visualizations, may provide insights into the creation of policy, legislation and law that, will be useful for the city of Santiago, for Chile, for Latin America, and for any Fleet Commander with forces in the region. We al,so think that predictive tools may provide insights into:A- Social Polarization: Segregation within a society that arises when facto,rs (socio-economic, cultural, religious) lead to a differentiation of social groups and, as a result, the society becomes divided in,to two highly cohesive subgroups with opposing views. Such polarizations have already complicated DoD basing in several nations in t,he Pacific, and have complicated missions with NATO ,(nodes) and/or relationships (links) of the system are relevant. Depending on the subject studied, it will be important to identify,the vital points for crisis management and prune others evaluated as misleading or less valuable. Information acquisition is easy, b,ut accurate information that can lead to robust US national security decisions requires sophisticated tools. C- Early Warning signal,s of crisis: Through information theory and methodologies implemented in complex networks, it is possible to identify early signals,that allow us to anticipate crisis scenarios and critical events. That may, in turn, allow for the dispatch of Maritime Prepositioni,ster relief operations are initiated. D- Sentiment analysis of online conversations: a deeper context can be obtained in conversatio,ns occurring on digital platforms using natural language processing.E- Message/news/events automatic classification: Information tha,t flows continuously in social networks can be analyzed automatically, and we intend to capitalize on prior work funded by the Offic,e of Naval Research as one component of our research strategy. It can later be used to derive insights on specific topics through a,detailed classification.F. Economics: digital, global, local. Understanding internal monetary flows helps us better understand human, behavior within Santiago. Predicting demographic patterns, analyzing the impact of digital currencies (both Central Bank Digital Cu,rrencies and cryptocurrencies), providing banking for the unbanked, and Know Your Customer initiatives, are each examples of compile,d data available through economic analysis to better understand the dynamics of (and perhaps threats to) the Santiago population. Su,ch research tools are becoming a recognized need as digital currencies arise in common use. In our view, the capacity in digital eco,nomics for both signaling intent, and for manipulation by malign actors, is an under-recognized PACOM AOR threat that warrants evalu
Document Details
- Document Type
- DoD Grant Award
- Publication Date
- Aug 05, 2022
- Source ID
- N000142212613
Entities
People
- Eric Rasmussen
Organizations
- Office of Naval Research
- United States Navy