VESOP II: Developing broadly applicable models to predict vital rates from remotely sampled health m
Abstract
Animal health is the lynchpin linking incremental, chronic effects of human-caused disturbance to their demographic consequences. O,ur previous Office of Naval Research (ONR) research developed quantitative, measurable indices of health that are predictive of popu,lation survival rates, a critical need in the Population Consequences of Disturbance (PCoD) framework. We developed a quantitative,model, the Veterinary Expert System for Outcome Prediction (VESOP), that successfully predicts population survival rate and reproduc,tive success from a suite of health indices. VESOP was developed on bottlenose dolphin (Tursiops truncatus) populations, where there, was an abundance of hands-on health measurements and data on survival outcomes. This project will extend the VESOP model in three w,ays to broaden its applicability to diverse taxa, and particularly species where hands-on health assessments are not feasible. Firs,t, we will capitalize on our recent and ongoing developments in epigeneticsto use estimates of ?biological age? as an important new,health metric capable of predicting future survival ? and one that can be analyzed from remotely sampled tissues. We add to an exist,ing database of epigenetic data from seven bottlenose dolphin populations with differing stressors and associated health issues that, affect their survival and reproductive rates. Second, we will undertake a case study to develop a VESOP model for a species of stro,ng Navy relevance (Blainville?s beaked whales) but where hands-on health assessment is infeasible. Along with conducting epigenetic,analyses, we will investigate the utility of including two of the health markers identified by the bottlenose dolphin VESOP as poten,tial predictors of survival (triiodothyronine (T3), and cholesterol), but we will measure them in blubber rather than blood. Third,,we will conduct an additional case study for a species with a contrasting life history (northern elephant seals, a capital breeder),, but for which there is robust health and survival data. Together, these extensions will provide significant opportunity to advance,our ability to assess and monitor the health of diverse marine mammal species and to identify the quantitative links between health,measures and vital rates that are critical for the progression of PCoD models.
Document Details
- Document Type
- DoD Grant Award
- Publication Date
- Sep 08, 2022
- Source ID
- N000142212706
Entities
People
- Lori H. Schwacke
Organizations
- National Marine Mammal Foundation
- Office of Naval Research
- United States Navy