Sea-Level Rise in the Indo-Pacific Region: Building a Framework for Interdependent Resilience
Abstract
We will quantify flood vulnerability at Guam and Hawaii using two approaches that link climate model projections to Total Water Level (TWL), or the superposition of tides, wave-driven runup, and storm surge. We will use the TESLA climate emulator, and a coupled numerical modeling approach that links CMIP6 atmosphere-ocean global climate model (AOGCM) output with wave and tide/storm surge models. The models will be used to assess high-tide flooding, as well as vulnerabilities to extreme events associated with storms and energetic swell. Surrogate models will be used to bring wave energy to the shore. TESLA opens opportunities to consider scenario-driven risks in high temporal and spatial resolution and provides a framework for assessing heavy rains and compound flooding events. The AOGCM approach establishes an explicit dynamical link between TWL and CMIP6 climate simulations. We will explore optimal vulnerability assessments based on a hybrid approach using these two modeling systems. Foundational adaptive capacity research for Guam and Hawaii will involve, i) a review of local military/civilian planning history to assess the character of interactions, ii) a planning document review and analysis to identify joint military/civilian planning processes, adaptation planning processes, and points of synergy and tension between military and civilian decision-makers, iii) spatial analysis to determine social vulnerability aspects on and off-base and iv) organizational mapping of the local community of practice involved in adaptation planning extending from military to civilian entities and community-based organizations. The team will conduct initial outreach to community-based organizations to help identify community members who would be willing to participate in interviews or focus groups. In collaboration with the modeling team, we will determine opportunities for stakeholders to inform the modeling process and emphasis.-The flood risk simulations and interdependencies and vulnerability analyses will be used to test and evaluate how various decision-making frameworks can be utilized to optimize on and offbase collaborative strategies for adaptation. Focus groups including military and civilian decision-makers will be assembled to test responses to the model outputs and assess the sociopolitical and physical feasibility of developing adaptation options predicated on those outputs.These focus groups also will probe how decision-making processes may be improved to identify and align interlinkages between base and community vulnerabilities. We will evaluate decision making processes through Table Top Exercises that consider Dynamic Adaptive Policy Pathways. The results will inform a decision-making framework that integrates social and organizational factors with awareness of physical exposure. Recommendations on how to apply the decision-making framework and risk-management tools developed in this study will be presented.
Document Details
- Document Type
- DoD Grant Award
- Publication Date
- Oct 13, 2023
- Source ID
- N000142312862
Entities
People
- Mark Merrifield
Organizations
- Office of Naval Research
- United States Navy
- University of California, San Diego