Anticipating the Anthropocene Ocean
Abstract
We propose to conduct a broad assessment of what the world#s oceans might plausibly look like in 30 to 50 years and how that landscape will impact maritime security in the future. The study will focus on non-military activities on and beneath the ocean surface that will directly influence the Freedom of Maneuver and Distributed Maritime Operations of the US Navy and other services in the 2050 to 70 timeframe. The industrialization of the world#s oceans over the course of centuries has accelerated over the last decades and spread further and deeper from coasts. Nonmilitary sectors have dramatically increased the number and variety of artifacts introduced into the oceans ranging from wind turbines to semi-submersible oil and gas platforms to mega cruise ships to communication cables to commercial underwater vessels to plastic debris. Changes in sea level will also affect global ship navigation in the 2050 to70 timeframe as will changes in other ocean conditions like acidity. Scientific advances in the means to probe the physical, chemical, biological and bathymetric properties of the world#s oceans have also greatly increased humanity#s ability to monitor and navigate the oceans, but the improved surveillance capabilities has diminished stealth. This project proposes to capture and measure the effects of physical infrastructure on and beneath the world#s oceans in the background of more gradual changes in ocean conditions. Our purpose is to provide a grounded framework for considering how future changes might impact the Freedom of Maneuver and Distributed Maritime Operations of the US Navy and other services over the next 3 to 5 decades. Our findings should be valuable for developing strategy and priorities for the US Navy and Coast Guard, the maritime sector, regulators, scientists, and educators.
Document Details
- Document Type
- DoD Grant Award
- Publication Date
- Mar 08, 2024
- Source ID
- N000142412106
Entities
People
- Jesse Ausubel
Organizations
- Office of Naval Research
- The Rockefeller University
- United States Navy