Intensification, Structure, and Prediction of Different Types of Arctic Cyclones
Abstract
Arctic cyclones are the primary weather system in the Arctic and play an important role in modulating the variability of Arctic seaice through dynamic and thermodynamic processes. The decline of Arctic sea ice in recent decades has altered shipping routes and affected the accessibility to natural resources. Given the increasing human activity in the Arctic, skillful prediction of Arctic cyclones will provide useful information to address the associated economic opportunities and geopolitical challenges.Arctic cyclones can be regarded as a subset of extratropical cyclones. In contrast to their midlatitude counterpart (i.e., midlatitude cyclones), the development mechanisms and predictability of Arctic cyclones are less well studied or understood. Arctic cyclones and midlatitude cyclones exhibit notable differences in their structures and their large-scale environments. Given such differences, although the samemechanisms for midlatitude cyclone development are likely relevant to Arctic cyclones, the relative contributions of these mechanisms to Arctic cyclone intensification may be different. The implications of the different development mechanisms for Arctic cyclone predictability are yet to be explored. The proposal aims to provide a comprehensive and thorough investigation of the intensificationmechanisms of Arctic cyclones, the associated cyclone structural characteristics, and the implications for Arctic cyclone predictability. An objective, dynamics-based classification scheme will be developed based on observational data to categorize Arctic cyclones. We hypothesize that Arctic cyclones following different intensification pathways are associated with different structural characteristics and have different levels of predictability and ensemble sensitivity. The hypotheses will be tested through observational analysis, numerical model simulations, and evaluation of ensemble reforecasts. The project aligns closely with two Research Concentration Areas in the Office of Naval Research: Atmospheric Prediction and Atmospheric Processes. The proposed work will help enhance the Navy#s Arctic prediction capability by advancing our process-level understanding of Arctic cyclone development and systematically assessing the practical predictability and ensemble forecasting sensitivity of Arctic cyclones. Anticipated outcome of the project includes a better understanding of Arctic cyclone intensification mechanisms and predictability, improved Arctic cyclone prediction, training of STEM workforce, and peer-reviewed publications.(Approved for Public Release)
Document Details
- Document Type
- DoD Grant Award
- Publication Date
- Jun 13, 2024
- Source ID
- N000142412363
Entities
People
- Zhuo Wang
Organizations
- Office of Naval Research
- United States Navy
- University of Illinois Urbana–Champaign