An Antifragile Future for Naval Installations and Coastal Host Communities
Abstract
The proposed project aims to address the escalating vulnerabilities of urban centers along the South Atlantic and Gulf Coast, whichhouse vital naval installations. These areas are susceptible to the impacts of climate change and rising sea levels, with minority communities being particularly affected due to outdated infrastructure and limited resources. Comprehensive models of community resilience to natural disasters necessitate the integration of engineering and social science aspects within a unifying framework.The project will develop a decision support tool and a socio-technical digital twin within an antifragile framework for both naval infrastructure systems and the communities that support these installations. By enduring (and learning from) frequent yet low-intensity events, an antifragile system develops an ability to withstand unpredictable and powerful events. The concept of antifragility extends beyond resilience, focusing on systems that improve and learn from disasters, rather than merely recovering.The research will utilize the US naval facilities at Joint Base Charleston and surrounding communities as the project testbed. The strategic facilities there include the Navy Weapons Station, the Submarine Training Facility, and the Naval Information Warfare Center - Atlantic. The immediately surrounding communities include the city of Hanahan with a population of 21,000, with 25% belonging to minority communities and a 13% poverty rate. Hanahan serves as an excellent site to launch the project due to its small size, proximity to the Naval Installations, and chronic flooding issues.We will implement the community-based participatory research framework based on one currently being used by the team for public health challenges. Engaging the community is grounded in the belief that the public has the right to help guide and participate in the research and decision-making that affects them. By using #collective intelligence# and working together, community leaders and government officials will more accurately identify problems and develop more community-effective solutions.This project#s decision support tool and corresponding socio-technical digital twin are tailored to cultivate antifragile strategies for both naval infrastructure systems and the communities supporting these installations. The idea around automating such a system is to enable a system that learns over a longer period than the typical base commander (2-3 years) or senior-level engineer (10-15 years) all while learning from and strengthening the often minority-based communities that serve these installations.The digital twin serves as a virtual replica of the testbed location while enabling simulation, and scenario analysis. Real-time monitoring ofthe community will link data feeds from various sources to the models to ensure the system accurately reflects evolving real-world conditions. We will use forecasted climate change scenarios and predictive analytics to simulatefuture events and their socio-environmental impacts.The developed decision support tool will encompass a wide range of alternatives for strategic planning and adaptation beyond conventional infrastructure planning methodologies. The developed tool will integrate considerations of human factors and incorporate community-based systems for responding to unexpected events. This comprehensive tool enables decision-makers to assess how different strategies affect various facets of resilience.Anticipated outcomes include enhanced resilience and antifragility of naval facilities and surrounding communities, the integration of equity into infrastructure strategies, and the development of adaptable, long-term solutions for infrastructure challenges.The interdisciplinary research team, led by the University of South Carolina and Benedict College (an HBCU), ensures a comprehensive approach to the project.Approved for Public Release
Document Details
- Document Type
- DoD Grant Award
- Publication Date
- Nov 09, 2024
- Source ID
- N000142412727
Entities
People
- Jasim Imran
Organizations
- Office of Naval Research
- United States Navy
- University of South Carolina