The language of parasocial influence and the emergence of extremism
Abstract
Social media has become a dominant platform where influential individuals can reach vast audiences and establish strong parasocial relationships. The result is the growth of cultish formations centered around social media celebrities, often harboring extreme views -- not unlike historical fringe groups, but with far more rapid formation and global reach. Fanatical groups and ideologies assembled online can rapidly transform into realworld coordinated action, destabilizing societies and threatening national security. Understanding and mitigating this threat demands the development of a new "cyber social science." We hypothesize that online influencers employ rhetorical techniques -- including novel vocabulary, and memetic metaphors -- to cultivate followers who are eager to signal in-group membership, covertly or overtly, at the expense of espousing and eventually believe extremist and fact-resistant views. To study this hypothesis we propose an integrated program of (A) math modeling, (B) analysis of longitudinal social media data, and (C, D) two sets of human experiments that use targeted online recruitment to unravel the interplay between online influencers, rhetorical devices, parasocial bonds, and extremist beliefs. Our empirical work will be applied comparatively across Mexico, Brazil, and the United Kingdom -- countries that each have grappled with various forms of extremism (and where we have prior research experience and human-subject approvals in place). The synthesis of mathematical models parameterized from field data and validated against experiments will provide principled guidance for intervention and mitigation. The proposed research will provide an empirically grounded framework to study some of the most pressing problems in online social behavior. Mathematical models of group identity and belief formation will be calibrated against time-series data; and core questions about the mechanisms of online influence will be tested empirically, across three countries. The long-term goal is to lay a foundation for studying cyber social science. An empirically validated theory of how online cults form and how extremist views take hold will enable rational design of interventions against endogenous threats or coordinated influence attacks by adversaries, on social media. Research outcomes will also provide a basis for designing effective mitigation protocols, including training programs in "social medial literacy" and preparedness for DoD personnel.
Document Details
- Document Type
- DoD Grant Award
- Publication Date
- Nov 09, 2024
- Source ID
- N000142412778
Entities
People
- Joshua B. Plotkin
Organizations
- Office of Naval Research
- United States Navy
- University of Pennsylvania