Anticipating Coastal Population Mobility: Path to Maladaptation or Sociopolitical Stability
Abstract
This project evaluates coastal maladaptation risks on population mobility in coastal areas of US Allies and -territories in the Indo-Pacific. This region is highly prone to coastal extreme weather events, sea level rise, -and other climate change stressors. The implications of maladaptation in response to coastal changes for regional stability and US national security are significant. Coastal Allied nations and territories in this region play a vital role in US power projection near potential flashpoints of top priority to the National Defense Strategy, including the South and East China Seas and Taiwan. The US Department of Defense (DOD) increasingly relies on these allies and territories to conduct joint exercises and deployments essential to its strategy of integrated deterrence in the region. This research will assess the mobility outcomes of three different coastal adaptation scenarios (adaptation, no adaptation, maladaptation) in the coastal zones essential to US strategy in the IndoPacific: Japan, the Philippines, and Guam. These pathways can serve as crucial push-pull migration factors and significantly impact population mobility. For example, protective measures like gray infrastructure can increase a sense of security, development, and in-migration, resulting in overcrowding and social disconnect. At the same time, maladaptation can lead to the out-flux of the workforce and increase the social vulnerability of those left behind. Thus, this proposal aims to evaluate the impact of different coastal adaptation and maladaptation scenarios on mobility across different spatiotemporal scales and identify pathways that could exacerbate sociodemographic, economic, cultural, political, ecological, and governance challenges and destabilize the capacity to serve as our Allies. It is grounded in the migration theory, which describes mobility as a function of pull and push factors in both sending and receiving locations and mediated by intervening factors. The novelty of our approach is that it centers on adaptation/maladaptation as pull-push forces that could drive population movement away from or towards the coasts. Coasts, being the most critical for the US strategic interest, might then become the epicenters of vulnerability and social destabilization. -Our interdisciplinary team combines unique expertise in coastal adaptation and migration (social science -perspective), data science (AI/ML and systems research), and climate security policy. It will deliver basic -social science research using mixed methods and integrating expert and local knowledge in developing and -validating conceptual, geospatial, and ML models. The project will have four interconnected components: 1) -Assessment of existing conceptual frameworks, tools, and datasets to identify relevant data and indicators; 2) -Expert knowledge solicitation to determine key climate risks and adaptive/maladaptive responses, rank indicators based on their importance for climate change adaptation and mobility, and produce Causal Loop Diagrams (CLDs) encompassing contextual factors in study locations; 3) Geospatial Information System (GIS) and Machine Learning (ML) modeling to develop plausible scenarios of population movement in response to different adaptation pathways; and 4) Validation of modeling products using expert input. The implications for the defense are multifaceted. The stability and prosperity of these strategically vital study locations in the face of climate change challenges are crucial prerequisites of their ability to support US interests. This project will also have substantial broader impacts, primarily targeting the future student workforce and policy-makers.-
Document Details
- Document Type
- DoD Grant Award
- Publication Date
- Feb 24, 2025
- Source ID
- N000142512162
Entities
People
- Anamaria Bukvic
Organizations
- Office of Naval Research
- United States Navy
- Virginia Tech