The Growing Nonproliferation Challenges in Southeast Asia Forecasting Emerging Capabilities
Abstract
As Southeast Asia becomes increasingly able to supply sensitive, high-tech commodities, the region’s impact on nonproliferation and illicit trafficking becomes more critical. Countries like Malaysia, Indonesia, Thailand, Vietnam and the Philippines are pursuing significant growth in industrial sectors, and in service sectors like logistics. Authorities in Southeast Asia do not appear fully cognizant that as their technical capabilities grow, their draw as second-tier suppliers for proliferating actors increases as well. To meet the coming challenges in Southeast Asia, the James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies (CNS) will undertake this project in order to identify the evolving industrial capabilities in Southeast Asia and forecast which sectors are most likely to develop as proliferation threats in the near to mid-term. CNS plans to identify and examine the key challenges facing the region in the coming decades and develop methodologies for the relevant actors (both in and out of government) to consider when coping with these issues. The project’s research will focus on the future prospects for proliferation activity in the region by gauging the likely progress in manufacturing and technical capacity, and then identify frameworks and initiatives that will be required to prevent the dissemination of resulting dual-use materials to proliferating entities. CNS begin its research by using open-source trade data and statistics, review of existing economic and trade forecasts for the top six ASEAN countries. As part of this project, CNS will also host a one-day workshop in Jakarta to gain knowledge and feedback from relevant experts in the region. CNS researchers will also travel to relevant regional meetings to discuss the status of controls and industrial development with Southeast Asian experts. This research aims to answer two key questions: 1) How will the availability of dual-use commodities develop in Southeast Asia over the next decade? And 2) What can be done at the domestic, regional and international level to establish a sustainable framework to keep the region from becoming the next major proliferation challenge? The ultimate goal of this project is to help identify the most problematic sectors in the near to mid-term so as to best allocate limited resources to combat the spread of WMD-related commodities.
Document Details
- Document Type
- DoD Grant Award
- Publication Date
- Aug 09, 2016
- Source ID
- N002441510002
Entities
People
- Chen Kane
Organizations
- Middlebury College