Space Cyberspace and Strategic Stability in the Asia Pacific
Abstract
The National Bureau of Asian Research’s (NBR) project – Space, Cyberspace, and Strategic Stability in the Asia-Pacific – will examine the effects of emerging dynamics in space and cyberspace on nuclear dynamics and strategic stability in the Asia-Pacific. Navigating the complexities of Asia’s shifting strategic environment will be critical to the future stability and prosperity of the United States and the region. The two most important emerging elements that are set to influence the future of strategic stability in Asia are advancing capabilities in space and cyberspace. Space-based systems provide early warning, positioning and timing, and intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance that can be directly related to nuclear decision-making. Actions that affect or inhibit these capabilities could be interpreted (rightly or wrongly) as an attack or threat to strategic capabilities. Similarly, actions conducted in cyberspace could be interpreted (rightly or wrongly) as an attempt to undermine a country’s national economy, homeland security, or core national security systems. In both cases, emerging Asian capabilities in space and cyberspace will have significant implications for strategic stability, U.S. extended deterrence guarantees, and American national security interests. As the Asia-Pacific is increasingly characterized by rising nationalism and deepening geopolitical tension, understanding the implications of space and cyberspace for strategic stability in the 21st century is growing especially crucial. By gathering key experts and officials from across the region to explore these issues, this project will deepen understanding of the complex dynamics and factors influencing strategic stability in the Asia-Pacific and assess the implications for Washington’s regional defense strategy and extended deterrence commitments. To these ends, the project will: • Review the relevant literature on strategic stability, particularly related to the influence of emerging dynamics in space and cyberspace • Assess how key countries in the Asia-Pacific view strategic stability, the significance of space and cyberspace to their national economies and security strategies, and the role of these domains in their deterrence and extended deterrence calculations • Explore future scenarios for the Asia-Pacific’s space and cyberspace environments, and identify what factors could drive nuclear use, stability, proliferation, restraint, or retrenchment • Assess the implications of the study’s findings for how foundational strategic concepts such as deterrence and reassurance may be applied in space and cyberspace, particularly as they relate to nuclear dynamics • Assess the implications of the study’s findings for American nuclear strategy, especially the potential impact on efforts to reduce, the size of the U.S. nuclear arsenal, and propose recommendations for the U.S. policy community • Explore the applicability of nuclear nonproliferation and arms control principles and precedents to the space and cyberspace domains and identify opportunities to operationalize such concepts • Evaluate options for regional actors to contribute to the strategic stability of the Asia-Pacific and strengthen the nuclear nonproliferation regime Over a two-year period, NBR will examine the emerging dynamics in space and cyberspace, explore how they may affect strategic stability in the Asia-Pacific, and assess their implications for U.S. policy and the future of U.S. extended deterrence. Specifically, the project will produce: two annual dialogues on the implications of space and cyberspace for strategic stability, dialogue reports, and private briefings. The deliverables from this project will provide both American and regional policy communities with a better understanding of the emerging dynamics that will likely have an impact on strategic stability within Asia.
Document Details
- Document Type
- DoD Grant Award
- Publication Date
- Mar 09, 2016
- Source ID
- N002441510029
Entities
People
- Abraham Denmark
Organizations
- Defense Threat Reduction Agency