Iran s Evolving Ballistic Missile Doctrine: From Deterrence to Anti Access, Area Denial Strategies and Capabilities
Abstract
Iran retains the largest, most diverse arsenal of ballistic missiles and artillery rockets in the Middle East. Its stockpile of short- and medium-range ballistic missiles and its heavy-artillery rockets lack the precision needed to destroy specific targets reliably when armed with conventional, high-explosive warheads. While not militarily decisive, Iran’s missiles are capable political weapons. Tehran believes that it can deter – or intimidate -- regional rivals by threatening to launch its missiles against major cities and other soft, large-area targets. Should deterrence fail, Iran reasons it could strike population centers to terrorize citizenry, sow fear and degrade the political resolve of its adversaries. During the 1990s and early-2000s, Tehran focused on strengthening its deterrent forces by growing and diversifying the missile arsenal and extending the range of its largest missiles, allowing Iran to strike major cities throughout the region, including Israel. More recently, Iran has worked to increase the lethality of its missiles. The introduction of the Fateh-110 ground- attack missile, the Khalij Fars anti-ship ballistic missile, and the Hormuz-1 and -2 anti-radiation ballistic missiles, which officials claim are highly accurate, suggest that Iran aspires to expand its missile strategy from one of deterring aggression by punishing would be attackers to a deterrence doctrine that also relies on denying foes their military objectives. Iran has yet to attain the improvements to missile accuracy needed to operationalize an effective anti-area, access-denial capability in support of its overarching military strategy of countering an armed intervention. This study will evaluate Iran’s industrial base, technical know-how, and access to foreign hardware and technologies, and assess its capacity to indigenously develop precision-guided ballistic missiles. If Iran succeeds in creating and fielding precision-guided ballistic missiles, it could credibly threaten American air bases, ports, and critical-military and civilian facilities throughout the Gulf with a destructive capacity similar to weapons of mass destruction, but without the collateral damage and international stigma that comes with the use of non-conventional weapons. Informed by the principle investigator’s 2010 assessment of Iranian missile capabilities, and supplemented by discussions with missile specialists having experience building precision-guided ballistic missiles, the proposed research should provide an accurate assessment of Iran’s capacity to strike targets precisely. Further, the research will determine the strategic consequences of Iran’s improved capacity, identify strategies capable of hindering Iran’s access to the needed hardware and technology, and define mitigation measures aimed at to reducing the vulnerabilities of U.S. forces in the Gulf, as well as U.S. friends and allies in the region.
Document Details
- Document Type
- DoD Grant Award
- Publication Date
- Mar 10, 2016
- Source ID
- N002441510054
Entities
People
- Michael Elleman
Organizations
- United States Navy