Estimating The Demand For Nuclear Weapons: The Agenda Ahead
Abstract
This project will take stock of efforts in the last couple of decades to improve our understanding of the demand-side for nuclear weapons: which states have pursued them andwhy, and which have not done so and why. This effort has proceeded along different methodological and theoretical lines, sometimes precluding fruitful exchanges across paradigms and methods (large-N statistical versus case-studies, for instance). The first stage of the project will review the theoretical and methodological gains and shortcomings from the last two decades of research on this question. It will identify pitfalls in both quantitative and qualitative research designs, from over-representing irrelevant cases to under-representing relevant ones, over-stating causation, omission or deficient operationalization of variables, defective case-selection, and others. The second stage will introduce methodological innovations gleaned from a broader literature in the discipline, and develop a procedure that seems far more appropriate to the relevant population of states that ought to be considered for the question at hand. The procedure entails attention to the Possibility Principle to distinguish between “negative” cases and “irrelevant” ones. “Negative” cases closely resemble positive cases on key hypothesized causal factors, rendering them more analytically useful, fruitful, and relevant. This seems a better path than estimating “average” causal effects for a larger population of heterogeneous and irrelevant states. This stage will introduce Qualitative Comparative Analysis (QCA) as an analytic technique designed to incorporate systematic principles of comparison into qualitative research. QCA has never been used in this thematic context from what one can glean in the public domain. We expect our findings to improve both scholarly knowledge and public understanding of a major challenge in international security. The substantive products of this research will be a series of articles and chapters in both professional publications and broader public forums, and presentations at research institutions with special expertise in nuclear proliferation and other public venues.
Document Details
- Document Type
- DoD Grant Award
- Publication Date
- Jul 11, 2016
- Source ID
- N002441610023
Entities
People
- Etel Solingen
Organizations
- Naval Information Warfare Center Pacific
- Office of the Secretary of Defense