Assessing the Benefits and Burdens of Nuclear Latency
Abstract
How does nuclear latency, defined as a state’s possession of technical capabilities that enable— but fall short of—acquisition of nuclear weapons, affect that state’s security position and bargaining power? The growing number of states that operate uranium enrichment or plutonium reprocessing facilities, which form the core technical capabilities with utility for nuclear acquisition, makes understanding the consequences of nuclear latency more important than ever for global and U.S. security. Yet the field of international relations has not fully addressed this question, focusing instead on the causes and effects of nuclear proliferation itself, rather than on activities that can facilitate proliferation but fall short of that threshold. Moreover, existing approaches within international relations provide competing ideas regarding the expected effect of nuclear latency. On the one hand, some scholars suggest that latency can create a stand-by nuclear capability that functions as a “virtual deterrent” against would-be aggressors or a bargaining chip in international negotiations. On the other hand, competing research demonstrates that states cannot deter military challenges without a deliverable nuclear device, and that a state’s pursuit of latent capabilities increases the odds of being challenged or attacked. As a result, policy practitioners and concerned citizens have little basis for predicting how the spread of nuclear technology that enables proliferation will affect international and U.S. security. The first objective of this research is to resolve this lacuna in our understanding of the consequences of nuclear by identifying the conditions when latency benefits or burdens states in international interactions. Additionally, the second objective is to illuminate the determinants of nuclear latency by examining what factors influence a state’s decision to pursue fuel-cycle technology. Our third objective is to create an expanded dataset of latency measures. To achieve these three objectives, the investigation utilizes a mixed-methods research design employing statistical analysis on this expanded dataset and historical process tracing on a series of case studies of nuclear decision-making: Argentina, South Korea, Pakistan, Japan, and Iran. The expected results are that (1) the acquisition of latency has differential effects and that its impact will be attenuated by the state’s pre-existing relationships and (2) a state’s pursuit of latency reflects its material capabilities, security environment, and positioning with regard to the status quo distribution of resources in the international system. The findings have critical implications both for U.S. foreign policy and for how academics and concerned citizens understand the causes and consequences of nuclear technology decisions by sovereign states.
Document Details
- Document Type
- DoD Grant Award
- Publication Date
- Aug 11, 2016
- Source ID
- N002441610042
Entities
People
- Rupal Mehta
Organizations
- Office of the Secretary of Defense