NICOP - Investigation of the Rapid Intensification of Tropical Cyclones in the North Western Pacific
Abstract
Investigation of the Rapid Intensification of Tropical Cyclones in the North Western Pacific:Note to TD: This is a joint research effort between NRL and Prof. Chun-Chieh Wu at the National Taiwan University (NTU). Prof. Wu is a world leading expert in studying tropical cyclone (TC). Dr. Melinda Peng (Head, Atmospheric Dynamics and Prediction Branch, Marine Meteorological Division, NRL Monterey) is the NRL sponsor. I will coordinate with CDR Blake McBride on the technical side. The total funding for this effort counting US and international is $80K per year for 3 years. NRL will pay for their effort ($40K per year) and contribute $20K per year for 3 years to the international portion of the effort. ONRG contribution will be $20K (or 25% of the total effort) per year for 3 years. a. Technical: This project aims to clarify the physical mechanisms leading to rapid intensification (RI) of tropical cyclones. The observational data collected during ITOP (Impact of Typhoons on the Ocean in the Pacific) field program for Typhoon Megi (2010) will be assimilated into the EnKF data assimilation system to evaluate the key features leading to RI. On top of that, those valuable data from ITOP could be used to validate the performances of numerical simulations. In addition to the case study of Megi, other rapidly intensifying cases will be compared with Megi under different environmental conditions. The comparisons are expected to improve our understanding of the interaction between the tropical cyclone and its environment and the predictability of RI under different atmospheric environments. The roles of the precursors, such as primary circulation at mid-upper level, warm core located at higher altitude, active convection near the TC center, secondary circulation and mass exchange between the eye and eyewall associated with barotropic instability, prior to RI are also to be investigated. b. Relevance: The Marine Meteorology Division of the Naval Research Laboratory (NRL-Monterey) has been active in the TC research. They maintain and support the U. S. Navy numerical prediction system for TCs and take great interests in improving TC intensity forecast. The PI seeks to continue collaborating with NRL in this effort. The outcome of the research will feed into the model development for the US Navy tropical cyclone prediction system, COAMPS-TC. The proposed work is a natural extension of the DoN S&T program on mesoscale modeling, and in particular TC prediction capability, that have been established at ONR and NRL. Better understanding of the fundamental physical and dynamical processes involved in TC intensity and structure changes will lead to the improvement of tropical cyclone prediction capability. c. Coordination: Dr. Melinda Peng (NRL Marine Meteorology Division, Monterey), and CDR Blake McBride (ONRG) d. Desired Outcome: (1) Analysis results of Typhoons Megi, (2) annual year-end report, (3) improved COAMPS-TC of numerical weather forecasting for US Navy fleet operation, and (4) high-quality journal publications.
Document Details
- Document Type
- DoD Grant Award
- Publication Date
- Sep 23, 2016
- Source ID
- N629091612169
Entities
People
- Chun-Chieh Wu
Organizations
- National Taiwan University
- Office of Naval Research
- United States Navy