TITLE: EARLY WARNING SIGNALS IN SOCIAL CRITICAL EPISODES . Project focused on detecting early-warnings signals of social crises.
Abstract
In the following proposal we will like to continue the research line of the ONRG Grant Number N62909-17-1-2010. We intend to connect social crises with social complexity applying and expanding methodsborrowed from applied biology and large-scale ecology to discrete systems coming from social dynamics.We will innovate in new metrics that are in resonance with the so-called complexity measures in orderto focus on crises forecast. We are particularly interested in the study of social systems that appeartalking" about a potentially destabilizing (e.g., spread of fear or social unrest) topic for a given society.The goal will be to search for early warning signals of critical events and characterized them (distributions,times before transitions, social network topology, etc.). An important characteristics of our proposal isthe following: Chile, being one of the most politically and socially stable countries in South America untilOctober 18th 2019 where the sociopolitical organization was broken; under this scenario Chile appears asa good laboratory to study current massive social events (i.e., sociopolitical and COVID-19 crises) andothers that Chilean society knows as relevant in the near future (i.e., elections, reform of the NationalConstitution, etc.). All of these future events can be traced using tools from Complexity Science in orderto detect early warnings signals of social crises. In this way we will have the chance to analyze and increasethe performance of our methodology knowing in advance when the following wave of social agitation willoccurs.
Document Details
- Document Type
- DoD Grant Award
- Publication Date
- Jul 20, 2020
- Source ID
- N629092012060
Entities
People
- Juan Pablo Cárdenas
Organizations
- Office of Naval Research
- United States Navy