Development of a Group-Built System Dynamics Socio-Economic Model for the development of sound water security policies to ensure the sustainability of Panama Canal operations over time
Abstract
Over 70% of the cargo that passes through the Canal originates or is destined for the United States. In June 2020, the interoceanicwaterway received the U.S. Navy vessel Nomad, an experimental vehicle known as an unmanned surface vehicle (USV). The Panama Canal is undoubtedly the most important strategic and commercial waterways for the United States. However, intermittent water shortages have been reported in the Panama Canal Basin, leading the Panama Canal Authority to adjust the number and distribution of booking lotslast year. In addition to water scarcity, sedimentation is reducing Panama Canal s water storage lakes depth and capacity. Participatory modeling has gained ground as an integral component of integrated, adaptive, and collaborative management of water resources.Participatory modeling is, however, hindered by a number of barriers (high costs, a lack of technical expertise, and a lack of time). This study proposes a step-by-step approach to involving key stakeholdersin the development of a qualitative system dynamics socio-economic model. Understanding the interactions between socioeconomic and physical processes is necessary to develop effective policies leading to sustainable water resource management solutions. It is difficult, however, to incorporate socioeconomic components into physical models because of the complex nature of these interactions and the limited involvement of stakeholders. In the current study, we are addressing this challenge by developing a participatory group-built system dynamics model (GBSDM) that includes socioeconomic factors and can be coupled with a physical model in a subsequent study. Water runoff, quantity/quality and sediment yield inthe Panama Canal basin can be accurately quantified using innovative and rigorous process models (SWAT, InVEST, and SCS-CN) on the market. A future phase II will integrate the GBSDM model with the physical model, which will enable us to develop consensus policiesfor reducing sediment yield and improving water security in the Panama Canal basin based on scientific evidence.
Document Details
- Document Type
- DoD Grant Award
- Publication Date
- Nov 09, 2024
- Source ID
- N629092412096
Entities
People
- Roberto Forte
Organizations
- Office of Naval Research
- United States Navy