Affective Forecasting Errors: Implications for Individual Learning and Performance (II-A-1: BASIC RESEARCH)
Abstract
Individuals regularly make decisions about which situations to enter versus avoid, and about in which behaviors to engage versus refrain, based on predictions about the affect (i.e., emotions) that would accompany those situations or behaviors. What, though, if these predictions Ð or affective forecasts Ð are largely inaccurate? Underestimating the intensity and/or negative valence of scenarios could result in a lack of preparation for the affective demands of the context, in turn, necessitating the utilization of regulatory resources during task performance that better could be used for task execution. Alternatively, predicting that activities are more onerous than they actually prove to be could result in avoiding situations and tasks that ultimately would serve to enhance learning and, in turn, subsequent task performance. The nature of this disconnect, though, and the conditions in which it manifests remain unexplored; so too do the circumstances under which inaccuracy in these affective forecasts impact learning and performance and the mechanisms through which such occurs. In this project, we will explore these questions by developing a series of research questions and corresponding hypotheses regarding affective forecasting (accuracy) in work/organizational contexts and conducting four empirical projects to assess those questions and predictions. Project 1 will be an experience sampling methodology (ESM) investigation addressing the topic of when affective forecasts about work-related tasks and events are more or less accurate and the implications of (in)accuracy for task performance. Project 2 will replicate and extend Project 1, investigating the performance implications of affective forecasts in a sample of police trainees. Project 3 also will use experience sampling methodology (ESM) and will seek to clarify the mechanisms through which affective forecasts influence task performance in a sample of college students. Finally, Project 4 will be a second laboratory investigation, examining ways in which task-related learning and performance might be enhanced through increased affective forecasting accuracy. The four projects - individually and as a collective Ð have important implications for task-related learning and performance, especially for emotionally-laden tasks and activities in which Soldiers engage. These include not only acute and intense activities, such as combat, but also activities and contexts in which Soldiers may not appreciate the prominence and influence of affect (e.g., monotonous or vigilance-related tasks). In particular, in addition to their theoretical value, the findings from this series of investigations have direct relevance to improving training and to leader development in the Army.
Document Details
- Document Type
- DoD Grant Award
- Publication Date
- Feb 19, 2019
- Source ID
- W911NF1610513
Entities
People
- Seth Kaplan
Organizations
- Army Contracting Command
- George Mason University
- United States Army