SOCIAL RESILIENCE TO NUCLEAR WINTER: AN ANALYSIS OF THE A.D. 536 ATMOSPHERIC EVENT
Abstract
In June of A.D. 536 an atmospheric event occurred that blocked the sun in the Northern Hemisphere for 18 months and disrupted the climate for as long as five years. The A.D. 536 event seems eerily similar to the hypothesized climatic effects of a Ònuclear winterÓ. Because of its similarity to a Ònuclear winterÓ, the atmospheric event of A.D. 536 provides the opportunity to explore empirically the potential social impacts of a limited nuclear war. In addition, because some societies survived the A.D. 536 event, analysis of the A.D. 536 event should provide an opportunity to develop and evaluate models of resilience to Ònuclear winterÓ. Finally, the A.D. 536 event provides an interesting case study through which to test competing theories of societal resilience; in particular, those positing that social and infrastructural flexibility are the keys to building resilient societies. In this project, the archaeological and historical record of societies impacted by the A.D. 536 event will be coded on three sets of variables: (1) societal ÒtightnessÓ versus ÒloosenessÓ; (2) degree of political participation; and (3) infrastructure ÒflexibilityÓ versus ÒrigidityÓ. These sets of variables are hypothesized to be predictors of resilience to Ònuclear winterÓ. Analysis will focus on developing regression models to identify those variables that contribute the most to resilience. In the end, several strong predictors of resilience are anticipated, and these, it is hoped, will both provide empirical tests for the various theories about resilience and point the way to actionable policies to help the United States become more resilient to a possible Ònuclear winter.Ó
Document Details
- Document Type
- DoD Grant Award
- Publication Date
- May 07, 2018
- Source ID
- W911NF1710441
Entities
People
- Peter N. Peregrine
Organizations
- Army Contracting Command
- Human Relations Area Files
- United States Army