Open Price Exploration for National security (OPEN)
Abstract
The Open Price Exploration for National security (OPEN) program aims to increase supply chain resilience and enable more efficient critical mineral markets by leveraging advances in artificial intelligence (AI) prediction and forecasting to increase price, supply, and demand transparency. Based on concepts developed in the LogX Program (budgeted in PE 0603760E, Project CCC-02), OPEN will construct structural price predictions from fundamental and observable critical mineral input costs and increase the accuracy and precision of supply and demand forecasts by leveraging this structural price in conjunction with advances in AI and economic modeling. Today, critical mineral markets and supply chains are vulnerable. International supply shocks can lead to large and rapid critical mineral price spikes with immediate economic ramifications, and commodities purchase transactions (e.g., offtake agreements) are negotiated leveraging a mix of opaque and flawed pricing data. OPEN will leverage a decomposition of a critical mineral price into four components (input costs, supply/demand shocks, distortions due to noncompetitive behavior, and stochastic fluctuation) to construct transparent estimations of an approximate marginal cost for critical minerals indexed by time and geographic location, and will estimate supply and demand forecasts for critical minerals that take into account geopolitical factors, energy fluctuations, and technological innovations in recycling and supply chain management. Technology developed under this program will transition to the Services and commercial partners.
Document Details
- Document Type
- Accomplishment
- Publication Date
- Oct 01, 2025
- Source ID
- b265cf4be956bf06b7b00a3843e357f8