ERRORS IN SIX AND TWELVE HOUR PREDICTIONS OF UPPER LEVEL WINDS

Abstract

REVEALS THAT SUBJECTIVE FORECASTS ARE LINEARLY RELATED TO THE WIND AT THE BEGINNING OF THE FORECAST INTERVAL. THIS RELATIONSHIP ENABLES THE DEVELOPMENT OF A REGRESSION EQUATION BETWEEN FORECAST ERROR AND PERSISTENCE ERROR MAKING IT POSSIBLE TO EXTEND THE RESULTS DERIVED FROM THIS SAMPLE. THE VARIATION OF FORECAST AND PERSISTENCE ERRORS WITH GEOGRAPHY, LEVEL AND SEASON IS DISCUSSED. THE MAXIMUM ADVANTAGE OF SUBJECTIVE FORECASTS OVER PERSISTENCE IS 10( FOR 6-HR PERIODS AND 20( FOR 12-HR PERIODS

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Document Details

Document Type
Technical Report
Publication Date
Jul 01, 1962
Accession Number
AD0285796

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  • E. M. Darling Jr

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  • Air Force Cambridge Research Laboratories

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