FURTHER APPLICATIONS OF MOVING-COORDINATE PREDICTION MODELS TO NORTH AMERICAN CYCLONES
Abstract
A moving-coordinate prediction-model technique applied to East Coast cyclones has been extended to predict cyclone behavior in most of North America for both summer and winter. Equations based on stratification, incorporation of past history, and addition of derived variables are developed from 833 cases. Comparison with equa tions based on unstratified data, no past history, and only simple variables shows that the latter set of equations is usually superior. This 'base-technique' set of equations yields vector- position rms errors of 2.38, 4.26, and 5.96 deg lat and central-pressure rms errors of 4.28, 6.88, and 9.03 mb for 12, 24, and 36 hr when applied to 213 independent winter cases. Subsequent refinements achieve vector-position rms errors of 2.31, 4.10, and 5.88 deg lat and central-pressure rms errors of 4.19, 6.88, and 9.03 mb for the 3 time periods. Comparable results for climatology are 3.42, 6.13, and 8.34 deg lat for position and 4.83, 8.03, and 10.50 mb for central pressure. Results for summer cyclones are also presented. Equations based on surface data only are developed and tested. They are useful whener upper-air data are unavailable. Worksheets for operational application of the techniques are included.
Document Details
- Document Type
- Technical Report
- Publication Date
- Jun 01, 1963
- Accession Number
- AD0414589
Entities
People
- Frederick P. Ostby
- John E. Emerson
- Keith W. Veigas