ECONOMICS OF INCREASING KNOWLEDGE ABOUT MISSILE RELIABILITY

Abstract

A small number of rocket boosters are to be deployed in a military system on a standby basis. The system's performance specifications require that in time of need at least Q missiles fire successfully with gamma probability. The reliability of these missiles is not known for certain, but is described, by the analyst, in terms of a subjective unimodal probability distribution. A technique is described in this report to provide the answer to two questions that can be raised about the situation described above: (1) With existing information about the booster, what is the required deployment quantity to meet performance specifications. (2) Is it expected that missile test firings to increase knowledge of missile reliability will reduce deployment costs sufficiently to more than offset test firing costs.

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Document Details

Document Type
Technical Report
Publication Date
Oct 01, 1963
Accession Number
AD0422474

Entities

People

  • S. A. Sobel

Organizations

  • MITRE Corporation

Tags

Communities of Interest

  • Weapons Technologies

DTIC Thesaurus Topics

  • Air Force
  • Booster Rocket Engines
  • Contracts
  • Corporations
  • Delphi Method
  • Deployment
  • Economics
  • Equations
  • Government Procurement
  • Governments
  • Massachusetts
  • Probability
  • Probability Distributions
  • Reliability
  • Specifications
  • United States

Readers

  • Life Cycle Cost Analysis
  • Missile Defense Systems.
  • Statistical inference.