Analysis of Risk for the Materiel Acquisition Process Part 1: Fundamentals

Abstract

The paper is the first in a series devoted to the subject of analysis of risk for the materiel acquisition process. The objective of this introductory paper is three-fold. First, risk analysis is structured to show that it has close affinity to systems analysis and adds a new dimension, in terms of a probability measure, to integrate the three dimensions of cost, time to complete, and performance of a program in the materiel acquisition process. Secondly, numerous applicable techniques of statistical decision theory are presented, plus decision tree analysis and subjective judgment collection. Thirdly, methods for risk analysis of the concept formulation and contract definition phases of the acquisition cycle are exhibited. Research problems are also mentioned for future investigative efforts. Significant payoffs from a risk analysis include the identification of high risk areas, recommendations of additional studies to fill data gaps for better management decision making, a better basis for budget allocation, as well as the discovery of additional program alternatives.

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Document Details

Document Type
Technical Report
Publication Date
Nov 01, 1970
Accession Number
AD0715394

Entities

People

  • John D. Hwang

Tags

Communities of Interest

  • C4I
  • Human Systems
  • Weapons Technologies

DTIC Thesaurus Topics

  • Acceptability
  • Aerospace Industry
  • Computer Programs
  • Computers
  • Contractors
  • Contracts
  • Cost Analysis
  • Decision Theory
  • Game Theory
  • Information Systems
  • Military Research
  • Probability Distributions
  • Random Variables
  • Risk Analysis
  • Statistical Decision Theory
  • Systems Engineering
  • Test And Evaluation

Readers

  • Business Analytics
  • Systems Analysis and Design
  • Team-Based Human-Centered Cognitive Task Decision Making and Information Performance.