An Elementary Cross-Impact Model

Abstract

Cross-impact analysis is a method for revising estimated probabilities of future events in terms of estimated interactions among those events. The report presents an elementary cross-impact model where the cross- impacts are formulated as relative probabilities. Conditions are derived for the consistency of the matrix of relative probabilities of n events. An extension also provides a necessary condition for the vector of absolute probabilities to be consistent with the relative probability matrix. An averaging technique is formulated for resolving inconsistencies in the matrix, and a nearest-point computation is derived for resolving inconsistencies between the set of absolute probabilities and the matrix. Although elementary, the present model clarifies some of the conceptual problems associated with cross-impact analysis, and supplies a relatively sound basis for revising probability estimates in the limited case where interactions can be approximated by relative probabilities.

Open PDF

Document Details

Document Type
Technical Report
Publication Date
May 01, 1971
Accession Number
AD0728742

Entities

People

  • Norman C. Dalkey

Organizations

  • RAND Corporation

Tags

Communities of Interest

  • Air Platforms
  • Biomedical
  • Space

DTIC Thesaurus Topics

  • Acquisition
  • Algorithms
  • Arms Control
  • Bibliographies
  • Civil Defense
  • Communication Satellites
  • Communication Systems
  • Computations
  • Consistency
  • Delphi Method
  • Department Of Defense
  • Estimators
  • Foreign Aid
  • Probability
  • Structural Properties
  • Theorems
  • Triangles

Readers

  • Game Theory.
  • Regression Analysis.
  • Systems Analysis and Design