Markov Models and Dynamic Analysis of ASW Effectiveness

Abstract

The report presents methodology for evaluating ASW system effectiveness in dynamic operational contexts. It shows that conditional probability models may be generalized by using Markov modeling methods and suggests three models that include false contacts. Parameter estimation methods are given for Markov models and the results of experimentation with several methods are presented. Some of the methods use operational data not currently used in effectiveness modeling; hence, it is suggested that improved effectiveness modeling may be possible with Markov methods because more data can be used to estimate model parameters. State space structuring is investigated and results of numerical experimentation are given for different sets of states applied to the same set of data. (Data were generated by hypothetical non- Markov dynamic processes and a Monte Carlo simulation model).

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Document Details

Document Type
Technical Report
Publication Date
Jul 01, 1973
Accession Number
AD0780447

Entities

People

  • Andrew J. Korsak
  • William H. Frye

Organizations

  • SRI International

Tags

Communities of Interest

  • Ground and Sea Platforms
  • Sensors
  • Weapons Technologies

DTIC Thesaurus Topics

  • Aircrafts
  • Computational Science
  • Computer Programming
  • Computer Programs
  • Data Mining
  • Data Science
  • Information Processing
  • Information Science
  • Linear Programming
  • Mathematical Models
  • Naval Warfare
  • Navy
  • Operations Research
  • Probabilistic Models
  • Probability Distributions
  • Random Variables
  • Statistical Algorithms

Readers

  • Computational Modeling and Simulation
  • Mathematical Modeling and Probability Theory.

Technology Areas

  • Space