Application of Enlisted Force Retention Levels and Career Field Stability
Abstract
The Air Forces success is influenced by the manpower it has. The end-strength is Congressionally mandated. Over 10 years ago, the Air force produced enlisted career field sustainment lines based on manning. If a career field was over manned the authorizations were decreased, likewise if a career field was under manned the authorizations were increased. The constant fluctuation of manning caused bathtubs to be created and requirements to go unfilled. Currently, the Air force produces enlisted career field sustainment lines based on the 5-year historical retention rates. This method produced a more steady state approach, as well as providing a means to adjust the line for other policy actions such as retraining in/out. The need to have a statistically base approach is essential for explaining and defending the creation of the sustainment lines. Data from 2006-2015 was utilized in this research. Logistic regression was used to determine if any significant variables existed, however logistic regression did not provide insight into the behavior of the data. A survival analysis approach, using retention data, provides a statistically sound methodology to the creation of the sustainment lines. This study produces sustainment lines based on the survival functions for each enlisted career field.
Document Details
- Document Type
- Technical Report
- Publication Date
- Mar 23, 2017
- Accession Number
- AD1051596
Entities
People
- Jamie T Zimmermann
Organizations
- Air Force Institute of Technology