Forecasting Lightning Initiation Utilizing Dual-Polarization Radar Parameters Over Washington, D.C.
Abstract
Prior studies by Woodard (2011), Thurmond (2014), and Travis (2015) show that dual-polarization radar can be utilized to identify the presence of hydrometeors necessary for cloud charging. Travis (2015) discovered two parameters, when used together, produced the best results: Z 36.5 dBZ and ZDR 0.31 at the -10 deg C height. This study applied the lightning initiation prediction method developed for Cape Canaveral Air Force Station (CCAFS) and NASA Kennedy Space Center (KSC) in Travis (2015) to a new location. The method was tested on 100 isolated, warm season thunderstorms spanning 5 years in and around the Washington D.C. area. Forecast metrics and lead times were calculated and compared to the results of Travis (2015). The results of this study concluded that the lightning initiation prediction algorithm from Travis (2015) for CCAFS/KSC does not perform well for the Washington, D.C. area. This implies that one lightning initiation prediction method cannot be applied across the entire national NEXRAD network.
Document Details
- Document Type
- Technical Report
- Publication Date
- Feb 26, 2018
- Accession Number
- AD1056261
Entities
People
- Sarah A. Olsen
Organizations
- Air Force Institute of Technology