Critical Transitions and Adaptation in Group Dynamics
Abstract
This report describes research exploring group opinion dynamics and aspects of militant group decision making. A novel theory of how group discussion leads to extreme decisions that incorporates research on decision making under risk and uncertainty was developed. In this theory, the focal frame of discussion, such as the subjective probability of an outcome, can systematically facilitate majority formation toward the extreme. Relatedly, a novel model of opinion network dynamics was developed which enables the emergence of proximate majorities and distinguishes between opinion and rhetoric. The model is in quantitative agreement with the results of a recent group experiment. Simulations also display a sharp transition between convergence to a common opinion and divergence into opposed camps. A theoretical framework for the role of ideology in militant decision making was developed and tested using data on insurgent groups in Syria. Using data collected on militant groups in Northern Ireland, factors responsible for escalation or de-escalation decisions were identified.
Document Details
- Document Type
- Technical Report
- Publication Date
- Sep 30, 2018
- Accession Number
- AD1077649
Entities
People
- Michael Gabbay
Organizations
- University of Washington Applied Physics Laboratory