The Past as Prologue, the Future in Forecasting: Preparing the US Military for Conflict in 2030

Abstract

A critical aspect of winning wars is knowing where combat will occur, particularly whether that will be in places without bases lacking sufficient logistical support for military operations. This paper builds upon three prominent forecasts, adapts the Fragile States Index, and creates a model for mapping countries by risk of future conflict. It compares two scenarios emphasizing governance and economic drivers. The two unique benefits from the project are the dynamic nature and the visual map. It is evident that future conflict will likely occur in places without bases, and military planners can best prepare by either expanding foreign agreements for US military activity or lessening the forces reliance on logistical support.

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Document Details

Document Type
Technical Report
Publication Date
May 11, 2017
Accession Number
AD1176614

Entities

People

  • Adam Stenberg

Organizations

  • Marine Corps University

Tags

Communities of Interest

  • Energy and Power Technologies

DTIC Thesaurus Topics

  • Commerce
  • Department Of Defense
  • Droughts
  • Economics
  • Environment
  • Failed States
  • Globalization
  • Governments
  • International Conflicts
  • International Organizations
  • Marine Corps
  • Middle East
  • Military Operations
  • Military Planning
  • Military Training
  • Natural Resources
  • Political Movements
  • Security
  • Training
  • United States
  • War
  • Word Processors

Readers

  • Computational Modeling and Simulation
  • Military History of the United States in the 20th Century.
  • Strategic Security Studies