An Adapted Organski Transition Model for the Twenty-First Century
Abstract
The Organski Transition Model, originally articulated in the late 1950s, describes the linear evolution of states through three main stages of development, and identifies the highest level of development as most ripe for intrastate conflict. Data from the Human Development Reports and the Maddison Project Database provides evidence for an adapted, less linear model that accounts for the developmental regression of states from any stage of the model, and the recovery of some of these states. This paper illustrates five conclusions supporting the adapted model, namely (1) states regress developmentally; (2) real GDP per capita is tied closely to the states level of development; (3) regression may occur at any stage of the Model; (4) conflict is overwhelmingly related to a decline in a states real GDP per capita; and (5) contrary to Organski's theory, states in the highest stage of development do not have a monopoly on conflict. An adapted Organski Transition Model will better reflect the current trend of states regressing in absolute power while retaining their sovereignty.
Document Details
- Document Type
- Technical Report
- Publication Date
- Apr 27, 2020
- Accession Number
- AD1177846
Entities
People
- Joseph A. Schulter
Organizations
- Marine Corps University