Declassified Intelligence and its Ability to Strengthen Coercive Threats
Abstract
Under the Biden administration, the United States has increased its use of intelligence as a source of national power, using it to publicly disclose adversary intentions and deter adversary actions. Based on recent cases in Russia and China, declassifying and sharing intelligence strengthens deterrence because it makes coercive threats more potent and credible. As the United States looks to deter escalation in Ukraine and aggression in the Indo-Pacific, it must continue using declassified intelligence to build coalitions and bolster coercive threats. First, the author explores the value of intelligence and the salient points of coercion theory to identify a potential opportunity for U.S. foreign policy. Next, an analysis of two recent examples of coercion shows that declassifying and sharing intelligence increases the potency and credibility of the coercive threat. Looking to the future, the United States must continue declassifying and sharing intelligence to build coalitions and strengthen deterrence around the globe. Exposing malicious intentions and declassifying wargaming results present two possible opportunities as the Biden Administration attempts to build strong and broad coalitions to coerce and thwart adversarial powers.
Document Details
- Document Type
- Technical Report
- Publication Date
- May 09, 2023
- Accession Number
- AD1211088
Entities
People
- Ryan Schiffner
Organizations
- Naval War College