The SABRE Method: Designing a Reliability Test Program for an Artillery Fired Atomic Projectile (AFAP)

Abstract

The SABRE method (Simulation Approach to Bayesian Reliability Evaluations) is a straightforward analytical approach and is presented utilizing mathematical modeling, Monte Carlo techniques, and Bayesian statistics. The objective was to design a test program of minimum sample size for an artillery- fired atomic projectile (AFAP) presently being developed. Engineers and mathematicians constructed a subcomponent level mathematical model of the system. A 'NO-KNOWLEDGE' prior (Beta) distribution is assumed for each data point in the model and a series of Monte Carlo experiments are performed, each utilizing different sample sizes and assumed failures. Each Monte Carlo produces a Bayesian system posterior distribution as in the Tri-Service approach. All posteriors are compared against design requirements, and the sample size which produced the best posterior was selected.

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Document Details

Document Type
Technical Report
Publication Date
Jun 01, 1975
Accession Number
ADA013356

Entities

People

  • Arthur J. Heyderman

Organizations

  • Picatinny Arsenal

Tags

Communities of Interest

  • Counter WMD
  • Weapons Technologies

DTIC Thesaurus Topics

  • Artillery
  • Bayesian Networks
  • Computational Science
  • Computer Programs
  • Engineering
  • Engineers
  • Firing Tables
  • Mathematical Models
  • Models
  • Monte Carlo Method
  • Projectiles
  • Random Variables
  • Reliability
  • Simulations
  • Statistics
  • System Safety
  • Weapons

Readers

  • Computational Modeling and Simulation
  • Regression Analysis.
  • ballistics.

Technology Areas

  • AI & ML
  • AI & ML - Bayesian Inference