Determination of the Combined Value of Diverse Weapon Systems Based on a New Genralized Eigenvalue Concept.
Abstract
The paper addresses previous methodologies and results of concepts that have been used in the past by the U.S. and Great Britain for determining the total combined value of diverse weapon types in a weapons system mix. Previous work has all been based on solving a set of linear homogeneous equations by means of eigenvalues. Specific methodologies are examined and it is shown that anomalous results are obtained, with regard to the effects of vulnerability. A simple change is introduced, which is shown to give consistent results with regard to vulnerability. A number of Measures of Effectiveness are examined and it is shown that the old and even the modified models with a vulnerability correction suffer from another important standpoint. The results of all the models studied show that if a weapon kills an increasing number of the other side's weapons, the effectiveness decreases and then increases slowly, so that a considerable increase in the number of kills must be inflicted before the effectiveness begins to exceed its initial value. Counterintuitive results such as these present a dilemma for the analyst or decision maker who is depending upon a complex simulation with its many interactions and effects. The specific problem at this point is whether to believe the simulation.
Document Details
- Document Type
- Technical Report
- Publication Date
- Dec 01, 1976
- Accession Number
- ADA040831
Entities
People
- Herbert N. Cohen
Organizations
- Center for Army Analysis