Application of a Bayesian Approach to Updating Airframe CERs.
Abstract
This study investigates a Bayesian approach for developing a parametric equation which will estimate the recurring cost of the next lot/unit of an airframe program. Recurring costs are predicted because definitionally these costs are expected to reflect the cost for a follow-on production unit. Although the data base used for this study consisted of production cost information, the Bayesian approach may be useful for providing a parametric estimate of production cost using recurring costs from a prototype effort. However, until definitional problems associated with separating engineering and tooling costs into recurring and nonrecurring categories are resolved, predictions of production or next unit engineering and tooling costs will be marginal. Because of the definitional problem, total cost, (nonrecurring and recurring) was used in this study to develop Bayesian updated CERs for the engineering and tooling categories.
Document Details
- Document Type
- Technical Report
- Publication Date
- Sep 01, 1979
- Accession Number
- ADA077064
Entities
People
- Walter D. Dietrich
Organizations
- Air Force Institute of Technology